Preseason Rankings
Wichita St.
American Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#77
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#103
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.6% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 3.0% 4.7% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 6.4% 9.4% 3.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.4% 39.4% 19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.8% 32.1% 14.3%
Average Seed 8.7 8.5 9.3
.500 or above 64.5% 77.4% 52.0%
.500 or above in Conference 67.6% 75.5% 60.0%
Conference Champion 8.5% 11.3% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.2% 3.2%
First Four3.8% 4.6% 3.1%
First Round27.3% 36.7% 18.2%
Second Round13.4% 18.3% 8.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 6.6% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.7% 2.6% 0.9%
Final Four0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Championship Game0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Neutral) - 49.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 5
Quad 24 - 46 - 9
Quad 36 - 212 - 12
Quad 43 - 015 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 75   Utah St. L 70-71 49%    
  Dec 02, 2020 178   Oral Roberts W 83-72 86%    
  Dec 06, 2020 66   Missouri W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 12, 2020 42   Oklahoma St. L 72-73 50%    
  Dec 15, 2020 98   @ Tulsa L 67-68 47%    
  Dec 22, 2020 97   @ South Florida L 66-67 47%    
  Dec 30, 2020 151   East Carolina W 80-70 80%    
  Jan 02, 2021 61   @ Mississippi L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 06, 2021 18   @ Houston L 65-75 20%    
  Jan 09, 2021 55   Cincinnati W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 13, 2021 98   Tulsa W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 17, 2021 65   @ SMU L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 21, 2021 40   @ Memphis L 73-79 29%    
  Jan 24, 2021 97   South Florida W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 27, 2021 55   @ Cincinnati L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 30, 2021 111   Central Florida W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 03, 2021 210   Tulane W 79-65 88%    
  Feb 07, 2021 145   Temple W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 10, 2021 111   @ Central Florida W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 18, 2021 40   Memphis L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 21, 2021 151   @ East Carolina W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 25, 2021 18   Houston L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 28, 2021 65   SMU W 72-70 55%    
  Mar 03, 2021 210   @ Tulane W 76-68 74%    
  Mar 06, 2021 145   @ Temple W 74-71 61%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 8.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.3 3.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.2 3.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.8 4.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.7 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.5 3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.6 7.7 9.1 10.6 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.6 6.8 4.9 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 94.5% 1.4    1.3 0.2 0.0
17-3 75.9% 2.1    1.5 0.6 0.1
16-4 47.0% 2.3    1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 20.2% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 50.7% 49.3% 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 53.1% 46.9% 2.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 99.9% 47.8% 52.1% 3.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-3 2.8% 98.4% 30.6% 67.8% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.7%
16-4 4.9% 95.3% 24.0% 71.3% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 93.9%
15-5 6.8% 86.8% 21.7% 65.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.9 83.2%
14-6 8.6% 65.6% 14.5% 51.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.1 3.0 59.8%
13-7 10.0% 41.9% 10.6% 31.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.8 35.0%
12-8 11.0% 20.5% 5.5% 15.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.7 15.9%
11-9 10.7% 9.2% 3.4% 5.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.7 6.0%
10-10 10.6% 4.5% 3.2% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2 1.3%
9-11 9.1% 2.1% 2.0% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.1%
8-12 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-13 5.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
6-14 4.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.2
5-15 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 29.4% 8.5% 20.9% 8.7 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.9 4.4 4.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 70.6 22.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 63.0 37.0